Forum:2010 Atlantic Hurricane season/September
September 99L.INVEST AoI: Coming off of Africa Yet another wave is coming off of Africa. A couple of the models show some development from it. --Patteroast 13:18, September 1, 2010 (UTC) :Up on NHC at low risk, 10%. --Patteroast 16:36, September 2, 2010 (UTC) ::20%. Still, Gaston just fell apart, so... --Patteroast 13:20, September 3, 2010 (UTC) :::30% Hermine gonna follow her brother? Is she gonna be smart and not to try to form? atomic7732 23:14, September 3, 2010 (UTC) ::: ::: 99L.INVEST Invest'd. Both this and ex-Gaston are on the Mariner's 1-2-3 rule graphic as danger areas. --Patteroast 01:39, September 4, 2010 (UTC) :The invest has become more spread out, risk is back down to 20% for now. --Patteroast 17:21, September 4, 2010 (UTC) :: ::Ah, reduced to 10% shortly after I posted that... --Patteroast 17:58, September 4, 2010 (UTC) :::And not even on NHC or NRL anymore. --Patteroast 09:23, September 5, 2010 (UTC) 10L.HERMINE AoI: Bay of Campeche/Remnants of 11E Some storms that seem to be pretty closely related to ex-depression 11E have been mentioned by NHC the last couple days. In 11E's final advisory, there was mention that some models develop something in the southern Gulf of Mexico... it's unclear whether it might be 11E itself or other nearby storms. Either way, there's a 20% risk right now. --Patteroast 17:28, September 4, 2010 (UTC) :And of course, right after I post that they up it to 30%. --Patteroast 17:58, September 4, 2010 (UTC) 90L.INVEST Invest'd and up to 50% risk. --Patteroast 09:23, September 5, 2010 (UTC) :High risk, 60%. --Patteroast 13:10, September 5, 2010 (UTC) ::It will be a new Depression since the invests been renumbered and the LLCC has dissipated.JasonRees 00:48, September 6, 2010 (UTC) :::I figured. I can't say I've even seen them mention any connection to 11E. It's up to 80% now. --Patteroast 00:59, September 6, 2010 (UTC) Tropical Depression Ten Upgraded! Tropical storm warnings up to the Rio Grande. Forecast to become Hermine. --Patteroast 02:56, September 6, 2010 (UTC) Tropical Storm Hermine Upgrade on 5:00 UTC. --88.102.101.245 11:33, September 6, 2010 (UTC) :Interesting again. Formed out of 11-E's remnants in the East Pac, and now it could threaten Texas. At worst it could pull a Bret, but we have to wait to be sure. Ryan1000 15:06, September 6, 2010 (UTC) ::Wow, this storm crossed over via the Isthmus of Tehuantepec and ended up in the Gulf. Model tracks have trended farther north in past 12 hours. 2007Astro'sHurricane 15:42, September 6, 2010 (UTC) :::No, Hermine did not form from 11E, instead, it formed from a trough-split and TD11E's remnants just went over to that area. Hermine should make landfall tonight, and we should see some flooding in MX especially since they haven't fully recovered from Alex.Darren23Edits|Mail 22:15, September 6, 2010 (UTC) ::::I belive it partly formed from ex-11E and a trough split. YE [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Forum:2010_Pacific_hurricane_season T'ropical] [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Special:Contributions/YE '''C'yclone] 00:43, September 7, 2010 (UTC) :::::Landfall. --Patteroast 03:13, September 7, 2010 (UTC) ::::::Final advisory, over northern Texas. --Patteroast 12:35, September 8, 2010 (UTC) 11L.IGOR Forum:2010 Atlantic hurricane season/Igor 13L.KARL Forum:2010 Atlantic hurricane season/Karl 12L.JULIA 93L.INVEST Just coming off of Africa, already invested and at medium risk on NHC. 30%. --Patteroast 12:53, September 11, 2010 (UTC) :This thing looked like a tropical cyclone immediately after emerging off the coast. 2007Astro'sHurricane 15:15, September 11, 2010 (UTC) :::50% now, but thankfully, this storm should recurve further east than all the storms we have had this year. I still do expect this storm to be TS Karl/Julia though. After this, we still have 2 waves, and one or both of them could develop. Watch out guys, the CSU forecast might be coming true. :| '''Darren23Edits|Mail 20:51, September 11, 2010 (UTC) ::::CSU forecast link please? atomic7732 02:19, September 12, 2010 (UTC) :::::90%. YE [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Forum:2010_Pacific_hurricane_season T'ropical] [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Special:Contributions/YE '''C'yclone] 03:43, September 12, 2010 (UTC) ::::::"Near 100%". Or in other words, it'll be a depression at the next advisory time, unless it suddenly and unexpectedly falls apart. --Patteroast 13:37, September 12, 2010 (UTC) Tropical Depression Twelve Yup, that was pretty fast. It hasn't even reached Cape Verde yet. 2007Astro'sHurricane 14:47, September 12, 2010 (UTC) :Considering the way it seems to ran and considering the longer track Igor took this future Julia might cause some problems on the East Coast by steering Igor right onto the Carolinas or so. Or some other Fujiwhara stunt coud occur. --88.102.101.245 15:25, September 12, 2010 (UTC) ::Igor IS doing a WSW wobble or drift, but this is likely only temporary. Julia, which we will likely see soon, could be a problem for the Azores while Igor hits Bermuda or maybe goes farther west. 2007Astro'sHurricane 16:46, September 12, 2010 (UTC) :::I rather fear that future Julia might void Igor's visum for Canada because she seems to be headed directly to the northwest while Igor has a much longer way WSW and then turning to the Northwest and North so until he is approaching Atlantic Canada Julia might be there already. It might end in some kind of Perfect Storm, I fear. --88.102.101.245 18:52, September 12, 2010 (UTC) ::No. I just think that Julia will miss land and turn out to sea like Melissa did in late September 2007. It may become a hurricane, but I don't see it affecting land, by any means. I wouldn't be surprised if it does what Fred did last year, but it still won't affect land if it does that.Ryan1000 19:54, September 12, 2010 (UTC) Tropical Storm Julia Hello, beautiful! -- [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/User:SkyFury ''Sky''][http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/User_talk:SkyFury ''Fury''] 03:01, September 13, 2010 (UTC) :And miss-never going to affect land. Oh, well. Might as well watch it anyways. Ryan1000 21:15, September 13, 2010 (UTC) Hurricane Julia Upgraded! --Patteroast 09:06, September 14, 2010 (UTC) :This forum even shows how much people care about you. Your brother: 99%, you 1%. Sorry Julia, wrong time. atomic7732 14:09, September 14, 2010 (UTC) ::Cat. 2 -- [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/User:SkyFury ''Sky''][http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/User_talk:SkyFury ''Fury''] 02:43, September 15, 2010 (UTC) :::Speak for yourself, Atomic. I'm enjoying watching a hurricane that has just about no risk of impacting land. Igor's incredible, but it's headed straight for Bermuda... I'm wondering if we might have another Fabian. --Patteroast 03:08, September 15, 2010 (UTC) ::::Patteroast, you are my hero. A powerful hurricane making landfall is an incredible thing to watch, but it's refreshing to watch one without the weight of people's ruined lives hanging on my shoulders. -- [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/User:SkyFury ''Sky''][http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/User_talk:SkyFury ''Fury''] 04:57, September 15, 2010 (UTC) Major Hurricane Julia Whoa! Special advisory, 125 knots! Wtf? Really? 125 and now forecast to become a Cat 4! Julia hardly looks like a major hurricane to me. Cloud tops are really cold but the eye looks like sh!t. If the new forecast verifies, Julia would be the fourth Cat. 4 in less than a month. Record for most Cat. 4 or greater storms in an entire season I believe is five from 1999. Wow. -- [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/User:SkyFury ''Sky''][http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/User_talk:SkyFury ''Fury''] 07:23, September 15, 2010 (UTC) :Special advisory brings it to Cat 3 with a shot at Cat 4! What on Earth?!? Jake52 06:27, September 15, 2010 (UTC) ::And now it IS a Category 4. Tell me, did ANY of the models give Julia this much strength. Jake52 08:55, September 15, 2010 (UTC) :: ::Not at all. I am truly impressed with 2010. This year has 4 category 4 storms right now. Julia won't affect land, but man, she's a beauty, just like Danielle. This season just need's two more category 4's to shatter the two-way tie for 5 set in 1999 and 2005. Ryan1000 10:51, September 15, 2010 (UTC) :Woah! No one expected this! I was expecting category 3, but not category 4! atomic7732 14:35, September 15, 2010 (UTC) : :No computer models or the NHC forecast anticipated this one coming. She won't affect land, but she is the easternmost category 4 hurricane ever recorded in the Atlantic basin, reaching that intensity at 31.8 degrees west. One more cat. 4 and we will tie the all time record in 1999 and 2005, two more and we'll shatter the record, and if we keep getting them, this year could have a record or near-record :high ACE. Ryan1000 19:56, September 15, 2010 (UTC) :Back down to category 3, and still won't affect land. 125 mph now, but still, this was quite a surprise. Ryan1000 22:13, September 15, 2010 (UTC) ::Huh? What's happening to Julia now? After rising up on a hot streak in intensity earlier today, she looks like a piece of sh!t right now. I can barely see her eye on sattelites. By the next advisory, it might not even be a hurricane, if not, a really weak one. As fast as Julia strengthened, colder waters are knocking her down just as rapidly. She might even dissipate by tomorrow! If so, she would be one of the shortest lived-- if not the shortest-lived category 4 in the history of the Atlantic basin. Ryan1000 00:18, September 16, 2010 (UTC) :::I guess I could have predicted a rapid strengthening, as the eye was beginning to show last night and the Dvorak numbers were about to shoot up. But, Alas, I did not. This was a very unusual location for a cat. 4, but not surprising, and in the future we could get cat. 3/4 storms from the Azores to Portugal to the Mediterranean. 2007Astro'sHurricane 01:59, September 16, 2010 (UTC) ::::All the way back to category one. --Patteroast 21:00, September 16, 2010 (UTC) :::::It may be weak now, but look at its structure. Its eye has re-appeared in the past few hours, and now its eye is huge compared to the rest of the storm, which is small. It looks half-extratropical, but it's also getting over warmer waters and will reach 29C SSTs by the time it's expected to weaken to a TS. It's in prime annular hurricane territory right now, with all the necessary SSTs, shear conditions and upper-level wind, and it's pretty close to Epsilon's infamous strengthening site. 2007Astro'sHurricane 23:54, September 16, 2010 (UTC) ::::::However Igor's outflow and shear is going to destroy her. --88.102.101.245 05:30, September 17, 2010 (UTC) :::::: ::::::When Julia became a Cat. 4 on Wednesday, it was just the second time in recorded history that two hurricanes of at least Cat. 4 strength were active in the Atlantic at the same time. ::::::September 16, 1926 is the only other time this happened, and even then for just one six hour period (6Z). We'll see if that holds up in re-analysis. It wouldn't surprise me if it doesn't. Not one other time has this happened. Not 2005, not 2004, not 1999, not 1961, not 1950, maybe 1926...that's it. I must say, I'm totally amazed. I expected to find at least three other times that we've had simultaneous Cat. 4s. How about maybe one! Records go back 150 years; there isn't much that hasn't happened in the Atlantic. That is remarkable. Take a picture kids, you'll never see this ever again. -- [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/User:SkyFury ''Sky''][http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/User_talk:SkyFury ''Fury''] 18:03, September 17, 2010 (UTC) :Probably worth mentioning that Julia's a tropical storm at this point, and dying rapidly from Igor's shear. Still, she gave us a pretty good show! --Patteroast 13:10, September 18, 2010 (UTC) ::However it seems good Julia is much more robust than Igor thought he could get along with her. Still a tropical storm. --88.102.101.245 11:13, September 20, 2010 (UTC) :::Final advisory. --Patteroast 15:25, September 20, 2010 (UTC) Remnants of Julia Good girl still not totally dead. 20 percent for reintensification by NHC. --88.102.101.245 15:25, September 23, 2010 (UTC) :Now 'near 0%'. --Patteroast 02:41, September 24, 2010 (UTC) :::Julia's still searching Romeo: now at 10 percent, east southeast of Bermuda, though not conductive environment. ;-) --88.102.101.245 19:22, September 27, 2010 (UTC) AoI: Way East of Bermuda New little NHC blob in the subtropics. "DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM APPEARS UNLIKELY..." but at 10% nonetheless. --Patteroast :Asorbed by trough. 2007Astro'sHurricane 16:46, September 12, 2010 (UTC) 14L.LISA AoI: Lurking Near Cape Verde... Models have been forecasting that something would develop off Cape Verde within days... NHC now is showing a 10% risk in that same area. --Patteroast 15:26, September 17, 2010 (UTC) :Up to 30% now. Here comes Lisa! '''Darren23Edits|Mail 12:12, September 18, 2010 (UTC) 94L.INVEST Invest'd. --Patteroast 13:09, September 18, 2010 (UTC) :Up to 60% risk now. "CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS..." --Patteroast 06:07, September 19, 2010 (UTC) ::80%. "ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM LATER TODAY OR ON MONDAY..." --Patteroast 18:11, September 19, 2010 (UTC) :: Tropical Depression Fourteen Up on RBT. atomic7732 00:46, September 21, 2010 (UTC) :On NRL as well. I guess NHC doesn't feel a special advisory is warranted. (For what it's worth, they do have it at 90% risk, though. :P) --Patteroast 01:48, September 21, 2010 (UTC) ::Adv out. atomic7732 02:57, September 21, 2010 (UTC) Tropical Storm Lisa Huh. NRL's still posting ahead of NHC tonight... they're calling it 14L.LISA already! --Patteroast 07:51, September 21, 2010 (UTC) :Confirmation from NHC. --Patteroast 08:50, September 21, 2010 (UTC) : :Gah, Lisa is one of the saddest excuses for any TS I have seen. The outflow from Igor, more Julia, is providing tremendous shear over this storm. It won't get stronger than 55 knots IMO. If it does, i'll be very impressed. Even so, it won't affect land anyways... At least in the near future. I would wait on her, though. Mathew, her Carribean brother-to-be, could be a completly different story to talk :about in the next week... Ryan1000 11:30, September 21, 2010 (UTC) :I thought Ike was a poor looking tropical storm. Look what ended up happening. Personally, I believe we're getting a hurricane. Jake52 22:04, September 21, 2010 (UTC) ::I don't think Lisa's going to be anything like Ike... yeah, maybe it'll barely make hurricane, but I wouldn't bet on a very impressive or long-lived one... and also, the models seem to think it's going to sit in the same place for the indefinite future. --Patteroast 13:49, September 22, 2010 (UTC) :::Dropped down to a depression, but back to storm strength now. Definitely not going to be a hurricane... --Patteroast 21:08, September 23, 2010 (UTC) ::::Now that I think about it, has there ever been another Cape Verde storm that went to the EAST? Jake52 00:29, September 24, 2010 (UTC) ::::Yes, Vince, for example. This storm is expected to drift north, then its remnants track west. 2007Astro'sHurricane 18:03, September 24, 2010 (UTC) Hurricane Lisa Never say "never". Special advisory ups it to a hurricane (and it's a REALLY small one, probably Nana 1990 sized). Jake52 00:11, September 25, 2010 (UTC) :Hmmm... This has gotten interesting... a hurricane? I never saw her coming onto this intensity, but she still won't affect any land areas... However, if she can do what Julia did, then I will give her a nice round of applause! Also, if this pint-sized feisty storm can reach category 4, which currently isn't forecast, then I will just laugh at how Julia's record as the easternmost category 4 only stood for 9 days until Lisa broke it... in the same way Dennis's record as strongest pre-August storm only stood for 9 days until Emily broke it... Also, keep in mind Lisa is still the first storm after Karl, so if it becomes a major hurricane, then it will mark the first time 4 succesive majors formed in a season since 1961. This thing could actually be interesting to watch! Yay! Ryan1000 00:37, September 25, 2010 (UTC) ::Wow that was crazy! Hahaha! Lisa get yourself to cat 4! atomic7732 01:41, September 25, 2010 (UTC) :::What the hell? Really? Last I checked, this thing was on the verge of falling apart, heading for colder water, all but done...and all of a sudden it's a hurricane? That makes four straight hurricanes for the Atlantic. If Matthew could somehow pull it out (and if Lisa can do it, why not), it would be five in a row, which would really be a helluva thing. Been a while since we've had this many hurricanes in succession. This season's list of incredible things just continues to grow. -- [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/User:SkyFury Sky][http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/User_talk:SkyFury Fury] 04:00, September 25, 2010 (UTC) ::::Huh! Yeah, can't say I thought it would happen either. --Patteroast 04:07, September 25, 2010 (UTC) :::::BTW: Was there ever a hurricane in that part of the Atlantic, only a few dozens of kilometres north-northwest of the Capverdes? --88.102.101.245 11:00, September 25, 2010 (UTC) ::::::Nope. No hurricanes, just 2 TS's (Not sure about names). They were "in the vicinity", not like Vince. atomic7732 16:41, September 25, 2010 (UTC) ::::::::::Poof. YE [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Forum:2010_Pacific_hurricane_season T'ropical] [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Special:Contributions/YE '''C'yclone] 20:11, September 26, 2010 (UTC) 15L.MATTHEW AoI: Southern Lesser Antilles GFS models have been consistently tracking this into the Caribbean, then developing it in the Northern Caribbean, making landfall on Cuba, Miami, Northwestern Florida, Louisiana, Texas, Cancun, etc. Some model runs stall this in the Gulf. CMC also predicts a storm with a similar track, but from another disturbance in the SW Caribbean. 2007Astro'sHurricane 15:15, September 18, 2010 (UTC) :Yep, here is Matthew. Good old GFS. atomic7732 15:55, September 18, 2010 (UTC) *Whoo*, if we get just two more storms in September, we will have the all-time record this year, surpassing the former record set in 2002/2007. And if they become cat. 4's then we will not only have 3 pairs of back-to-back category 4's, an all time Atlantic record, but we will also have 5 succesive majors, the first time since 1950, and 6 category 4's overall, also a new record. My oh my. This season just won't stop coming. Forget about what I said about us having a dead season back in July. We are just not stopping, not even with Karl. Wow. Ryan1000 23:41, September 18, 2010 (UTC) :It's still disorganized but may organize in only a few days. By the way, did I mention that almost the entire Caribbean is currently above 30C?! Yup, that's right, a rare occurence of having had no hurricanes at all in the Caribbean this season has built it up for a monstrous tropical explosion. The last time that there were no hurricanes as all in the Caribbean was in 2000. Most other years had the first Caribbean in the hurricane in mid-to-late-August, though in 2009 the only hurricane was in November, in 2005 and 2003 the first came in early-to-mid-July, and in 2001 the first hurricane occurred in early October. The 12z GFS calls for a landfall on Jamaica, then northern Cuba, followed by the Miami area, then South Carolina. Track forecasts have been inconsistent, but the formation of such a storm has been fully consistent for many days. This could be one of the most damaging storms of the season. We may see Nicole by October 1. 2007Astro'sHurricane 20:09, September 19, 2010 (UTC) ::GFS keeps predicting two storms, and one of them either goes into the Gulf and hits Tampa, or goes northeast into Haiti, and hits the Carolinas. Either way, it doesn't look pretty, and reminds me of Wilma. 2007Astro'sHurricane 00:14, September 21, 2010 (UTC) :::Up on NHC at 10%. --Patteroast 09:47, September 21, 2010 (UTC) 95L.INVEST Invest'd and up to 20%. --Patteroast 14:03, September 21, 2010 (UTC) :50%! Although interacting quite a bit with Venezuela... --Patteroast 09:00, September 22, 2010 (UTC) ::60% now. "THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY OR TOMORROW..." --Patteroast 13:52, September 22, 2010 (UTC) :::Oh, f**k... This is NOT good... storms that form in this area are generally the ones that explode and become very severe for the U.S. This one probrably won't be any exeption. Mathew will not be so pretty when he becomes our season's fifth category 4 in the next week and hits the gulf coast. Stay tuned. This could be bad! Ryan1000 20:05, September 22, 2010 (UTC) ::::80 percent now. This evening we can meet Matthew. -- 15:28, September 23, 2010 (UTC) Tropical Depression Fifteen And here it is. However, it is only forecast to pass briefly over Honduras and briefly be a hurricane as he goes toward Belize. This one is not a U.S. threat. We're safe from Mathew. Ryan1000 20:08, September 23, 2010 (UTC) :Um, that is NOT certain at all at this point. The end of the forecast has a hurricane turning sharply north right on the coast of Belize. It could easily head into the Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane. This is one of watch carefully. --Patteroast 21:05, September 23, 2010 (UTC) Tropical Storm Matthew Oh, upgraded. Hello, Matthew. --Patteroast 21:05, September 23, 2010 (UTC) :Eastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, northern Honduras, western Cuba, Florida, the Carolinas and even Haiti better watch this one. This could be a major hurricane over the Gulf or Gulf Stream. There's also the chance of a second storm forming behind this one. 2007Astro'sHurricane 21:25, September 23, 2010 (UTC) ::And a third atomic7732 22:59, September 23, 2010 (UTC) :I'm sorry I mentioned that above, Pat. When I saw TD 15, I didn't see it's path include that sharp upward turn at the last minute at that moment. I have to stop jumping to conclusions on the forecasts from storms when they are just depressions, as they could change as soon as they are upgraded to TS's; however, Matthew is currently only forecast to be a category one storm. That is not enough to be severe. Also, Matthew isn't a small, compact storm like Andrew or Charlie, but it is a ragged, broad storm like Bill was, so it probrably won't explode. In the same sense, land interaction with northern Honduras might weaken it a bit, but Matthew only has two days to become a hurricane until he runs into Belize, and later the gulf coast. The chances of him becoming signifigant are small IMO unless this thing BOMBS in the Carribean, and I cannot see that happening. This thing will probrably hit the U.S, but if it does, I would not expect it to be any worse than a category one hurricane or tropical storm. This thing is too ragged to do a Wilma-type explosion in two days. Not at all to say it will be another fail, but i'm not expecting it to go in the top 5 by means of damages in the U.S, ect. Ryan1000 01:25, September 24, 2010 (UTC) ::Doesn't need to be a top 5 storm for people to pay careful attention to it. It's early, so a LOT could happen. All we know about any future U.S. impact is that we DON'T know what will happen. In any case, even without U.S. impact, it could cause some serious flooding in Belize and the Yucatan. --Patteroast 02:20, September 24, 2010 (UTC) :::Man, they just keep on coming. 2010 is just the fifth Atlantic season in recorded history to have 13 storms before the end of September (1933, 1936, 1995, and 2005 being the others). However that impressive stat doesn't quite do it justice. Ever since Danielle, the tropics have gone absolutely bonkers. Since August 22, ten storms have formed in the Atlantic. TEN! Are you kidding me? That is absurd! That's a new storm every 80 hours...for a month! That is flat out ridiculous! Not even 2005 had a four week stretch like this. They had eight in 28 days. 2010 has had ten in 33 days including five major hurricanes. FIVE! God! There hasn't been a stretch like this in history. The closest was 1933, which had nine in 35 days. This is just incredible. And we've still got a week left of September. Thank God for some well-placed high pressure systems or there'd be more than one American beach town in ruins right now. Watch out for this one. If it gets in the Gulf, it could be trouble. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 05:25, September 24, 2010 (UTC) ::Uh, yea, Eric. This thing is much better than when it formed, but I still highly doubt it will be a hurricane when it reaches Honduras. Yes, the Atlantic has gone downright nuts with 8 storms in September (including Earl), the most active ever known, but the Eastern and Western Pacific basins are so dead right now, we probrably won't even beat 1998 at the rate the WPac is going, and the EPac will probrably end up like 1977 or 1979. Yes, the Atlantic has gone beserk, but the incredible inactivity in the WPac and EPac will lead to 2010's ACE being well-below average worldwide. And that sharp upward turn that Matthew could take seems less and less likely as Matthew continues its westerly path. If that ridge doesn't weaken, then this storm will just move into Nicaragua as a TS and never cause any impact other than some flooding and mudslides there. Sorry, but the U.S. just won't see anything big from Matthew at this rate. However, 2010 is NOT over yet, and if we get another one of these storms in the Carribean, but one that misses Central America, we just might have some trouble... Ryan1000 11:35, September 24, 2010 (UTC) :::About to make landfall in northern Nicaragua as a TS. Looks like it'll dissipate in the Yucatan then move into the BoC, but we'll have to watch the two storms predicted to form behind this one. The Caribbean STILL hasn't had a single hurricane this year, and this storm will likely set of a new chain of storms. 2007Astro'sHurricane 18:05, September 24, 2010 (UTC) ::::The GFS is painting a pretty scary picture right now and all the models seem to predict something similar. The scenario they're depicting is Matthew dies out over the Yucatan and gets sucked into a new storm over the western Caribbean (this would be "Nicole") which then explodes and slams into SW Florida as a major hurricane, a-la 1944. Many of the large-scale models are developing what basically amounts to a monsoon trough over the western Caribbean within the next week or so, with a large low pressure regime and a very divergent atmosphere. This pattern is highly conducive to large, powerful hurricanes and is the same pattern that helps the West Pacific develop some of the most powerful hurricanes on the planet. A similar pattern in the western Caribbean has led to monsters like Wilma and Mitch. Now, I'm not trying to scare anybody. I don't think we're gonna have a Category 5 in the next few weeks, but this is a very rare pattern for the Atlantic basin and it's very conducive to powerful hurricanes. Astro, normally I'd cry BS on your "new chain of storms" prediction, but with the way this season has gone and what the models are depicting, I can't rule it out, especially if that monsoon-like pattern persists in the Caribbean. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 20:27, September 24, 2010 (UTC) :::...And Matthew has made landfall. it never even became a hurricane. Did I nail this one or what? I knew it wouldn't be a monster category 4 or 5 for the carribean. I KNEW it. This thing is moving too briskly to cause catastrophic floods for CA, and if it regenerates with the Gulf low, it becomes Nicole, and that's a whole new ball game. We may still need to stay tuned on him... Ryan1000 21:15, September 24, 2010 (UTC) ::::If Matthew had followed the original forecast and stayed over water, it had a decent chance to do something worrisome... but luckily, we never need to know what it might have done. Whew. --Patteroast 04:09, September 25, 2010 (UTC) :::::Devastating torrential rains over Honduras and Guatemala. 2007Astro'sHurricane 13:41, September 25, 2010 (UTC) ::::Well, this thing still could regenerate in the BoC and be a Gulf monster, like Opal was, and then hit the U.S. as a MH. Matthew didn't do so much in the Carribean; as I mentioned, he is moving too fast to drown CA, unlike Mitch did in 1998. If it regenerates in the BoC, then that's a whole new ball game... This thing is not done with us yet... Ryan1000 14:14, September 25, 2010 (UTC) :::::Or... maybe it is done with us... The NHC says Matthew has a very slim chance of redeveloping (less than 10% in the next 48 hours) and affecting the U.S. Maybe Matthew isn't coming back to hit us after all. I say, we got lucky with this storm. If Matthew had not stayed on it's westerly path then it could have exploded in the western Carribean. Apparantly it didn't do jack squat, other than some minor flooding and 13 deaths on it's path through CA. Ryan1000 22:05, September 26, 2010 (UTC) ::::::Yikes... there are reports of a landslides in Mexico that are being blamed on Matthew having killed '''hundreds. The U.S. may have lucked out, but Matthew might have been a monster after all... --Patteroast 16:17, September 28, 2010 (UTC) AoI: Offshore Tamaulipas This is in the Western Gulf, formed as a result of convergence within the remnant outflow bands of Karl. Could have a chance for surprise development. 2007Astro'sHurricane 15:15, September 18, 2010 (UTC) :This was on NHC for a while, but it's gone now. --Patteroast 06:08, September 19, 2010 (UTC) 16L.NICOLE AoI: North of Maracaibo Associated with the outflow east of Matthew, but the GFS develops it into a full-fledged hurricane that hits Cuba, goes into Florida, re-enters the Caribbean, brings about another storm, and heads out into the Atlantic again! There are still more than two months left of the season, and that's plenty of time for some devastating storms to strike the Caribbean. 2007Astro'sHurricane 18:07, September 24, 2010 (UTC) :There are currently two waves behind Matthew, but the closer wave will probrably just follow him into CA. This one, however, the third one in line, definitely bears watching. Stay tuned... Ryan1000 21:31, September 24, 2010 (UTC) 96L.INVEST Nobody's posted this yet? Big system, predicted by models for the last week... up to 40% risk. I'll be surprised if Nicole doesn't come from this. --Patteroast 00:15, September 28, 2010 (UTC) :Uh, yea Pat, this thing is gonna run into that trough that's currently crossing Florida and run right into southern Cuba. I highly doubt this thing will turn out to be a horrible system, unless it explodes. NOW. That's not gonna happen in my book. This thing is gonna make a hit somewhere, but most likely not southern Florida. Ryan1000 03:03, September 28, 2010 (UTC) ::I meant big as in 'of a large size', nothing about strength. Unless you're saying that a possible tropical storm isn't worth posting about. :P And actually, most of the models do predict that it'll affect southern Florida. They also don't make it much more than a tropical storm (although GFDL makes it a ragged low-end hurricane into the Carolinas.) Either way, it's making a lot of rain right now, although that probably won't have much to do with the storm that comes out of it. Anyway... NHC's bumped it up to 60% risk. --Patteroast 06:06, September 28, 2010 (UTC) :::At 80 percent this morning. A TD or a TS could form any time, the NHC says. -- 10:20, September 28, 2010 (UTC) ::Well, we haven't seen a U.S. landfalling hurricane since Ike, we might as well have one now, first in 2 years and 2 weeks. We are a bit overdue for a U.S. hurricane, but even if it does affect south Florida directly, I'm not expecting it to get past category one or so. Might as well watch it... Ryan1000 11:34, September 28, 2010 (UTC) Tropical Depression Sixteen up on RBT atomic7732 14:23, September 28, 2010 (UTC) :NRL too. (Which site is RBT? That's the one acronym that gets thrown around that isn't in my hurricane bookmark list...) This thing's track and intensity forecast remind me of Tammy of '05, although starting further south and probably going further north. The quick, wet tropical storm up the east coast of Florida is pretty similar to me. Jeff Masters over on Wunderground keeps comparing it to a monsoon low. --Patteroast 14:35, September 28, 2010 (UTC) ::And on NHC. Tropical storm warnings for parts of Cuba, Florida, Bahamas, and Cayman Islands. Forecast to die before making it to the Carolinas.--Patteroast 15:39, September 28, 2010 (UTC) :I highly doubt I will see an explosion out of this poorly-organized depression. It will most likely nick up Florida's east coast and die out to sea. Nicole will not be very signifigant unless it organizes ASAP. Ryan1000 19:51, September 28, 2010 (UTC) ::Heh, 'organized' is not a word I'd use to describe it right now. This is going to be one ragged system. --Patteroast 20:57, September 28, 2010 (UTC) :::Development will be slow. However over 6 inches of rain already fallen in some parts of Florida and Miami is under a tropical storm warning. The GFS spews out a chain of storms in the Caribbean to Gulf to open Atlantic and we could even have our W-storm before October ends. 2007Astro'sHurricane 23:57, September 28, 2010 (UTC) ::::The GFS definitely spews out a ton of storms, but Sixteen looks like a monsoon depression that forms in the NIO. And the cold front over the east could develop something subtropical. HurricaneSpin 02:24, September 29, 2010 (UTC) :::Actually, sixteen might not even become Nicole. There is virtually no convection around this storm's center, and it might not even become named. It will cause some minor flooding in south Florida and the Carolias, but I'm not expecting a major system out of this; it just crossed Cuba, but impacts were light there, and they probrably will be light for the U.S. too. Ryan1000 11:09, September 29, 2010 (UTC) Tropical Storm Nicole Been a tropical storm for a few. I can't believe this level of activity. Jake52 19:00, September 29, 2010 (UTC) :Well, Jake, Nicole probrably isn't going to hit the U.S. as of now, but Nicole is the 8th storm to form in September in 2010's AHS, marking a 3-way tie for the most active ever recorded. In addition, 10 storms existed in September of this year, an all-time Atlantic record that not even 2004, 2005, or 2008 set. Oh, and, for the record, Nicole is a worthless piece of sh!t! Matter of fact, I wouldn't be surprised if the last advisory is issued later today. Ryan1000 20:40, September 29, 2010 (UTC) ::NHC straight up lied about the center location of Nicole. The LLCC actually crossed the Florida Keys. It was not over Andros Island. Look at this picture. See that low-level swirl south of the Keys? That's the center. It's not over Andros Island. Now if I could pick this out, NHC sure as hell could. They didn't want people to freak out thinking the storm was going to hit them because NHC knew that due to the structure of the storm, Florida wasn't going to get much of anything despite the fact that the center was going to move right over them. There was no need for warnings or any of that, so they just moved the center. In fact, I recall a forecast discussion while Nicole was over Cuba where they said the center appeared to have relocated to the east. That was a lie. They just did it so they could drop the warnings for the Florida coast. A clever, if unprofessional, deception. You mark my words, in post-analysis, they'll move the center back. -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 18:33, October 12, 2010 (UTC) Post-tropical Nicole Am I good, or am I just that good? Moments after I posted my above comment, the last advisory was issued. What an epic fail! Bye, Nicole! Ryan1000 20:59, September 29, 2010 (UTC) :I kind of half-expect Nicole to be reclassified as subtropical in post-analysis. It was a sorry excuse for a tropical system. --Patteroast 21:48, September 29, 2010 (UTC) ::Nicole, after all, is just be a monsoon trough, I can't even tell exact center from satellite images anymore, but GFS shows it regenerating on October 2. HurricaneSpin 23:51, September 29, 2010 (UTC) :Nicole's remnants and precursor will produce a chain of moisture impacting the Carolinas to Pennsylvania. 2007Astro'sHurricane 23:51, September 29, 2010 (UTC) ::Remnants are currently at 10% risk from NHC... risk of development as a ''subtropical system. More than likely there won't be development at all, though. --Patteroast 08:44, September 30, 2010 (UTC) AoI: North of French Guiana New wave that NHC's paying attention to. Only at 10% as of right now. --Patteroast 20:57, September 28, 2010 (UTC) :I DO NOT HAVE A GOOD FEELING ABOUT THIS VERY WAVE... It isn't much now, but when it gets into the Carribean, this thing could bomb out as one of the strongest October storms on record. There is no cold front directly behind the one currently crossing Florida, so the U.S. may definitely have to watch out for this wave. I have a terrible feeling about what this storm system will do... Stay tuned. Ryan1000 21:03, September 28, 2010 (UTC) ::Seems to be developing rather nicely. 2007Astro'sHurricane 23:57, September 28, 2010 (UTC) :::This system has become wider than the Caribbean! 2007Astro'sHurricane 23:52, September 29, 2010 (UTC) ::::NHC is saying that this is going to hit unfavorable conditions soon, though. --Patteroast 08:45, September 30, 2010 (UTC) :::::Well, it's gonna be able to get past the shear in the Carribean. By the time it reaches the southwestern Carribean, this thing will be out of the wind shear zone and by then, will likely begin developing, and then we will have to keep a close eye out for this thing. Now, it isn't gonna be worth much watching. Ryan1000 11:24, September 30, 2010 (UTC) ::::::NHC has started giving this wave and the one behind it one risk percentage. --Patteroast 13:21, September 30, 2010 (UTC) 17L.OTTO AoI: WSW of Cape Verde NHC has another wave behind the other one. Also at 10% risk. --Patteroast 21:41, September 29, 2010 (UTC) :Now at 20%. 2007Astro'sHurricane 23:53, September 29, 2010 (UTC) 97L.INVEST Hey, this has been invested.--Patteroast 08:49, September 30, 2010 (UTC) :Up to 30% now. --Patteroast 13:22, September 30, 2010 (UTC) ...And Otto could be coming onto us now... Even so, if it develops this early, I would see it turning out to sea, like Julia and Danielle did. I guess it's worth watching anyways... Ryan1000 20:18, September 30, 2010 (UTC) ::Looks like the two systems have merged. This is an absolutely huge system, hasn't even left the Main Development Region and could be only the first in a chain of Caribbean storms! Models bring this north of the Caribbean, on a track not unlike the one predicted for Gaston before it dissipated, and I think Haiti needs to watch out big-time. 2007Astro'sHurricane 20:26, September 30, 2010 (UTC) :If this thing isn't named by the time it hits Haiti, then it won't be retired even if it does kill hundreds of people there. However, further down the highway to hell, this thing could hit the U.S; that fact would bear mentioning -- and watching. Stay tuned. Ryan1000 20:43, September 30, 2010 (UTC) ::Well, it seems this wave has split up into an open trough as of now. This thing ran into that shear in the WCarribean, but I still could see this thing storming west and hitting the Carribean region by next week or so. It appears to have failed as of now, but this thing is not through with us yet. Stay tuned. Ryan1000 22:33, October 1, 2010 (UTC) :Is this things till sitting over the Leeward Islands? 20:26, October 4, 2010 (UTC) ::Yup. Currently at 20% risk from NHC. --Patteroast 22:32, October 4, 2010 (UTC) :::Hey, up to 40%. --Patteroast 00:24, October 5, 2010 (UTC) ::::And now up to 50%, now I have found the NHC website. 10:20, October 5, 2010 (UTC) :::: Wow, now it's 60%. -- 12:41, October 5, 2010 (UTC) ::::::And up to 80%. I guess this thing took its time but... 20:43, October 5, 2010 (UTC) ...And it looks like Otto is here, everyone. However, the cold front that has stalled off of the east coast will hinder it's chances of hitting the U.S. mainland. Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and the Virgin Islands had better watch out, though, as this thing isn't showing many sings of missing those areas... Stay tuned. Ryan1000 22:27, October 5, 2010 (UTC) :When it forms, it should be subtropical rather than tropical. But SS Otto is not bad, it bumps us to 15 with a few more weeks left, 19+ is still not out of the question. Darren23 | 01:05, October 6, 2010 (UTC) Subtropical Depression Seventeen Here we go! Forecast to become Otto, and then only one more to get to the never-used names this season. :) --Patteroast 10:35, October 6, 2010 (UTC) EARLIER AMSU TEMPERATURE DATA ALSO INDICATED THAT A WEAK WARM CORE WAS LOCATED BETWEEN 600-400 MB...SUGGESTING THAT THE SYSTEM WAS NOT FULLY NOT FULLY TROPICAL. :The NHC is creative this year, also with ... eh.. wording. -- 18:33, October 6, 2010 (UTC) Subtropical Storm Otto Named! And still subtropical. --Patteroast 21:09, October 6, 2010 (UTC) :Well, it is forecast to turn tropical tomorrow, but either way, as I mentioned, it will probrably ride up along the cold front and stay out to sea, never to affect the U.S. However, also as I mentioned, Haiti and the DR may need to watch out for flooding and mudslides from this sad excuse of a storm. Stay tuned. We won't be hit, but that doesn't mean Otto won't do anything. Ryan1000 21:42, October 6, 2010 (UTC) ::SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE UNIT AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND HAS STRENGTHEN INTO SUBTROPICAL STORM OTTO. ::Ahh... I see... atomic7732 23:16, October 6, 2010 (UTC) Tropical Storm Otto Transition to tropical is complete. Forecast to reach hurricane strength. --Patteroast 15:11, October 7, 2010 (UTC) :And it isn't impossible it could explode into a category 4 hurricane or so while heading out to sea, like Hurricane Greta did in 1956. It won't affect any more land areas, but it isn't impossible it could become a major hurricane before it dies. Stay tuned anyways. Ryan1000 11:38, October 8, 2010 (UTC) Hurricane Otto 11 am update on Otto is up. It's name is HURRICANE Otto. Jake52 14:47, October 8, 2010 (UTC) :And off it zooms to the Azores to turn extratropical. --Patteroast 03:04, October 9, 2010 (UTC) ::For a little while it looked like maybe Otto would make it to category two, but it's past its peak now. --Patteroast 19:44, October 9, 2010 (UTC) :::Extratropical. --Patteroast 15:41, October 10, 2010 (UTC) ::::What the hell, Otto's remnants are still spinning around out there? Between Madeira and the coast of Morocco at this point. --Patteroast 15:10, October 17, 2010 (UTC) :::::It was forecast to do exactly this by the GFS, and its remnants may have entered the Mediterranean, and some storms could have followed Otto though extratropical. I like the new layout, but I don't like the fact that I can't edit one of the smaller sections and that I can't scroll properly, though that could just be my computer. 2007Astro'sHurricane 21:12, October 21, 2010 (UTC) AoI: West Caribbean A lot of the models want to spawn another system from the same place Nicole came from. Worth watching. --Patteroast 21:41, September 29, 2010 (UTC) :NHC's showing this at 10% now. The models have stopped predicting that it'll spit out a chain of systems, though. --Patteroast 01:13, October 1, 2010 (UTC) ::Long gone. --Patteroast 22:32, October 4, 2010 (UTC)